Weather will turn cooler
A cool, wet weekend compared to recent days.
Friday morning (May 13), an upper air trough was located across the central United States with a ridge across the east, resulting in a transport of warm and humid air into Michigan on southwesterly winds aloft. The troughing feature is forecast to very slowly move eastward through the region, setting the stage for a prolonged period of wet weather, and as the feature passes to our east, to a return of cooler temperatures.
Look for showers with a few embedded thundershowers both Saturday and Sunday across all but northern sections of Michigan, where high pressure should lead to dry conditions by Sunday. Given the slow movement of the trough, showers will continue to be a possibility into early next week as well across southern sections of the state. Rainfall totals through early next week will range from less than 0.10 inches across far northern sections of the state to more than 1.00 inch across the south.
Temperatures will fall back from recent levels to highs in the 50s north, to 60s south on Saturday and only in the 50s statewide on Sunday. Lows will range from the low 30s in interior sections of the Upper Peninsula, to the low 40s across the far south Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will seem cooler given strong northeasterly winds from 10 to 20 mph or greater both days. Next week, more cool and unsettled weather is expected, with a continuing threat for showers and daytime temperatures remaining at below normal levels in the 50s and 60s. Medium range forecast guidance currently suggests the possible reestablishment of the jet stream pattern of late April and early May: troughing across western sections of the country, ridging across the east, and an active storm track through the Midwest.
The 6 to 10 day outlook for May 18-22 calls for mean temperatures to range from below normal levels across Lower Michigan to near normal across the Upper Peninsula. Precipitation totals are forecast to vary from below normal levels in northwestern sections of the state to above normal levels in the far south. During the 8 to 14 day period covering May 20 to 26, near normal mean temperatures and above normal precipitation totals are forecast statewide.